Fight Predictions: UFC 307

UFC 307 is the first event in October, and it's starting strong with a lot of well known names and several up and comers. There are two title fights on this card, so you're getting a bang for your buck.

I’ve analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the fighters in each matchup and have predicted how I see the fights going.  I always try to be unbiased in my predictions and give some factual background for you to make your own predictions as well.  As always in the fight game, you have to expect the unexpected, meaning you can never be totally sure who is going to win and how!  See if you agree with any of my predictions below!

Court McGee vs Tim Means (Means by TKO R2)

To start the prelims, welterweight veterans Court McGee (22-13) and Tim Means (33-16-1) will face off.  McGee has been in the UFC for some time, and was the winner of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) season 11 with a rear naked choke win over Kris McCray.  His last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Alex Morono.  He began his career by training karate and wrestling when he was younger, but became more well rounded training more martial arts as he got older.  He overcame drug addiction and started training in MMA more seriously.  He has both won and lost the majority of his fights by decision, with 11 wins and 10 losses, but he does have 7 wins by submission and 3 by KO/TKO.  Like McGee, Means has been in the UFC for quite some time, having been signed initially in 2012.  He was released from the UFC several fights into his career there and spent some time in jail and overcame a drug addiction himself.  He turned his life around and became a staple again in the UFC. His last fight was a TKO win over Uros Medic, which is how he has won most of his fights, boasting 20 wins via KO/TKO.  He considers himself to primarily be a striker, but also has 5 submission victories.

Both fighters are on the older side, with McGee being 39 and Means being 40, but they still prove to be tough competitors when they are on their game.  Means holds a higher striking accuracy at 49% over McGee’s 37%.  Means’ weakest area could be considered his ground game, as he has had 7 losses by submission, and McGee has 7 wins by submission; however, McGee only has a 25% takedown accuracy, and Means has a 65% takedown defense.  Given the fact that McGee has 2 recent KO/TKO losses on his record and Means has a wealth of KO/TKO victories, I believe this will play a factor.  I also think that Means is unlikely to get taken down.  Considering these factors, I believe the fight will end in a KO/TKO victory for Means in round 2.

Carla Esparza vs Tecia Pennington (Esparza by decision)

An interesting matchup in the strawweight division is next between former champion Carla Esparza (19-7) and Tecia Pennington (13-7).  Esparza was the inaugural strawweight champion with her win over Rose Namajunas on TUF, and then reclaimed her title after a lackluster performance over Namajunas again years later.  Her most recent fight was almost 2 years ago when she lost the title to Zhang Weili.  Esparza has an extensive wrestling base, having begun wrestling in high school, but she also trains in jiu jitsu and muay thai.  The majority of her wins have come by decision, with 4 TKO wins and 4 submissions.  Pennington comes from a muay thai/kickboxing base and also came from the same season of TUF but began her career in Invicta.  Her last fight was a split decision loss to Tabatha Ricci.  Pennington has been on the losing side of several split decision losses, some of which have been contested by fans and commentators.  Nearly all of Pennington’s fights have also come by way of decision, with only 1 win by KO/TKO and 1 win by submission.

In this classic grappler versus striker fight, Esparza holds an edge in takedowns at 35% accuracy, and Pennington holds an edge in striking at 48% accuracy.  Esparza’s striking defense sits at 55%, and Pennington’s takedown defense is 66%.  While Esparza’s striking has improved, it is still evident that she is behind her top competition on the feet.  Pennington’s takedown defense is decent, but Esparza is typically relentless with takedowns.  Esparza also has a 2 inch reach advantage.  If Esparza sticks to a safe game plan and pressures with lots of takedowns and can stay away from the striking threats of Pennington, I see this fight going to a decision in favor of Esparza.

Ryan Spann vs Ovince St. Preux (Spann by TKO R 2)

The next prelim fight features light heavyweights Ryan Spann (21-10) and Ovince St. Preux (27-17).  Spann competed on DWCS twice, and was signed after his season 10 victory by guillotine choke. He is currently on a 3 fight losing streak, with his last fight being a TKO loss to Bogdan Guskov.  He is a submission specialist with 12 wins by submission, but he prides himself in being well rounded, also holding 6 KO/TKO wins.  St. Preux’s most recent fight was a split decision victory over Kennedy Nzechukwu.  He is a veteran in the UFC, having been signed in 2013.  He is a well rounded fighter, holding 11 KO/TKO wins and 9 submission wins.  The majority of his losses have come by decision (9).

Although the majority of Spann’s victories have come by submission, St. Preux has a decent takedown defense of 67%, and Spann only has a 35% takedown accuracy.  St. Preux’s most recent loss was a TKO, and has lost 5 fights total in this fashion.  2 of Spann’s last 3 wins have come by way of TKO.  Given St Preux’s susceptibility to TKO, I believe Spann will win by this method in round 2.

Ihor Potieria vs Cesar Almeida (Almeida by KO/TKO R1)

In another welterweight fight, Ihor Potieria (21-6) and newcomer Cesar Almeida will face off.  Potieria was signed from DWCS after a ground and pound win.  Since then, he has had some difficulty going 2-4 since then.  His last fight was a guillotine loss to Michel Pereira.  He has been training in combat sambo since the age of 10 and is well rounded, holding 9 KO/TKO wins and 6 submission wins.  Almeida has attracted a lot of attention since joining the UFC as like Adesanya, he has faced current light heavyweight champ Alex Pereira three times in kickboxing.  He won once and lost twice, all by decision.  He also is a fairly fresh MMA fighter with only 6 professional fights.  His last fight came by way of split decision against Roman Kopylov.  He fought on the contender series and won via unanimous decision over Lucas Fernando, only 4 fights into his professional career.

Both fighters enjoy striking as a primary weapon, and Potieria holds a 51% significant striking accuracy and Almeida 61%.  Almeida has not attempted any takedowns in the UFC and has a defense rate of 56%.  Potieria has attempted takedowns but has not had any successful completions and has a 57% defense.  Potieria’s most likely path to victory is through attempting takedowns and looking for a submission because he holds an advantage here with submission victories.  He is also more susceptible to TKO losses as he has 4 on his record, and Almeida has 4 wins via KO/TKO.  I believe with the momentum that Almeida has along with his KO potential, he will take a victory via KO/TKO in round 1.

Austin Hubbard vs Alexander Hernandez (Hubbard by dec)

Next up is a lightweight matchup between Austin Hubbard (17-7) and Alexander Hernandez (14-8).  Hubbard was in the UFC initially in 2019, but was released after several losses.  He then competed on TUF 31 and was re-signed after his stint there.  He has had an up and down career, but his last fight was a unanimous decision win over Michal Figlak.  He was a wrestler in high school, but now trains equally in all areas.  The majority of his wins have come by way of decision (9), but he does have 4 KO/TKO wins and 3 by submission.  Hernandez has also had a rocky career as of late, having gone 4-6 in his last 10 fights.  His last fight was a split decision loss to Damon Jackson, and he is on a 2 fight losing streak.  6 of his 14 wins have come by KO/TKO and striking seems to be his favored method of fighting.

While Hernandez’s strength seems to be striking, Hubbard has never lost by KO/TKO.  Hubbard has a 50% takedown accuracy and Hernandez holds a 56% defense and only 1 loss by submission.  The majority of both fighters’ losses have come by decision.  Although both fighters have been up and down recently, Hubbard has had a more recent consistent record while in TUF 31.  Since both fighters are relatively equally matched and are unlikely to finish the other, I see this going to a decision ultimately in favor of Hubbard.

Marina Rodriguez vs Iasmin Lucindo (Rodriguez by decision)

The next prelim fight is between strawweights Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2) and Iasmin Lucindo (16-5).  Rodriguez has been in the top 15 for some time facing other top contenders like Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas.  The Brazilian was signed from DWCS with a TKO win over Maria Oliveira.  She comes from a muay thai base and has 6 wins by KO/TKO.  Her last fight was an entertaining matchup against Jessica Andrade which she lost via split decision.  Lucindo is primarily a striker also coming from Brazil.  She has been on a 4 fight win streak with a unanimous decision in her last fight against Karolina Kowalkiewicz.  She holds 8 wins via KO/TKO and 3 wins by submission.

While both fighters are excellent strikers, the level of competition that Lucindo has faced is lower, with several of her opponents holding losing records or having very few professional fights.  Lucindo does have an advantage by submission and has a 53% takedown accuracy, but Rodriguez has a 65% defense.  I believe that Rodriguez’s experience at a high level will be a factor in this fight leading to a decision win in her favor.

Stephen Thompson vs Joaquin Buckley

The featured prelim is between welterweights Stephen Thompson (17-7-1) and Joaquin Buckley (19-6).  Thompson has been a beloved staple in the UFC since 2012, with many asserting he should be given the “NMF” (nicest motherfucker) title.  The black belt karate practitioner’s last fight was a rear naked choke loss to the undefeated contender Shavkat Rakhmonov.  His only loss in the UFC was to Matt Brown before getting a shot at the title held at the time by Tyron Woodley.  After their second meeting where he lost by majority decision, he has gone 4-5.  He has a unique blend of karate and kickboxing style, which has helped him achieve 8 wins by KO/TKO.  Buckley also has a striking base but is newer to the promotion, having been signed in 2020.  His last fight was a unanimous decision over Nursulton Ruziboev.  Buckley has an impressive collection of KO/TKO wins himself, with a highlight reel finish for the ages with a spinning back kick win over Impa Kasanganay.  He is currently on a 4 fight win streak, 2 of which came by KO/TKO.

On paper this is a striker versus striker matchup.  Thompson does have a higher significant striking accuracy at 46%, with Buckley having a 36% accuracy.  Neither fighter often goes for takedowns, and both have decent defense in the 60%s.  Their reach and leg reach are also very close, with Buckley holding a 1 inch edge in reach, and Thompson holding a 2 inch edge in leg reach, so these factors will likely not play a major role.  While Buckley tends to land harder strikes and is more aggressive, Thompson is good at managing range and has an odd stance and crafty footwork, and manages his distance well, which I do believe will play a role.  I see this fight going to a decision for Thompson.

Kayla Harrison vs Ketlen Vieira (Harrison by submission R2)

The first fight on the main card is between women’s bantamweights Kayla Harrison (17-1) and Ketlen Vieira (14-3).  Kayla Harrison’s transition from the PFL to the UFC was highly anticipated, and she was tested immediately with her first fight against veteran Holly Holm, where she won via rear naked choke.  Many were surprised and impressed that she managed to make 135, as she fought at lightweight in PFL.  The two-time judo Olympic gold medalist has 7 wins by submission and has also proven to be a threat on the feet holding 6 wins by KO/TKO.  Her only loss in the PFL was to Larissa Pacheco in a lightweight title fight, in which some fans disagreed with the outcome.  Vieira has been in the UFC longer and is also credited as a judo fighter.  Her last fight was a unanimous decision win over Pannie Kianzad.  She has a few finishes on her record with 2 KO/TKOs and 4 submissions.  She has fought quite a few veterans on her way into the top 15 including Cat Zingano and Meisha Tate.

Based on her fights in the PFL, Harrison is an aggressive and accurate fighter.  She landed 839 strikes at 73% accuracy, most of which were on the ground (704 at an 80% accuracy).  She also landed 33 of her 41 takedowns at an 80% accuracy.  Vieira does have a loss by TKO to Irene Aldana, but does not have any losses by submission.  She also has a near-perfect takedown defense of 93% and significant striking defense of 52%.  While Vieira is a strong opponent and game fighter who may be one of Harrison’s toughest matches to date, I believe the pressure and aggression of Harrison will be too much for her to handle, and Harrison will be able to take her down like she has with many of her other opponents.  I believe she gets a submission win in round 2.

Roman Dolidze vs Kevin Holland (Dolidze by decision)

Next up is another fight in the middleweight division between Roman Dolidze (13-3) and Kevin Holland (26-11).  The Georgian Dolidze stepped up to 205 in his last outing to win over Anthony Smith by decision.  A powerful competitor, 10 of his 13 wins have come by way of finish with 7 KO/TKOs and 3 submissions.  He has only lost by decision against top 15 fighters like Marvin Vettori and Nasourdine Imamov.  Holland was signed off of Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) and quickly became a fan favorite for his fighting style and his out of the cage antics.   He has had memorable fights and finishes, including his creative victory over Ronaldo Souza.  He has a second degree black belt in kung fu and Brazilian jiu jitsu.  He has remained incredibly active with 21 fights inside the UFC since signing in 2018.  He also holds an impressive amount of finishes, with 13 wins coming by KO/TKO and 9 wins by submission.

Neither fighter has a significant advantage over the other in terms of striking accuracy or defense.  Neither fighter has a significant advantage in takedowns either, but Holland holds an edge in defense at 55%, whereas Dolidze is at 33%.  Although he has remained very active, Holland has been inconsistent and sometimes appears to not take his fights as seriously; however, when he is dialed in and prepared, he proves to be challenging to go up against.  I believe if Holland can utilize his unorthodox style of fighting and possibly take Dolidze to the ground, he has a path to victory.  However, Dolidze is a more consistent fighter with no submission or KO/TKO losses.  For this reason, I think this fight will end up going to a decision in favor of Dolidze.

Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista (Aldo by decision)

Entertaining men’s bantamweights Jose Aldo (32-8) and Mario Bautista (14-2) will go head to head next.  Aldo has had a long and illustrious career, becoming the featherweight champion in the WEC which was then absorbed by the UFC where he had 8 title defenses.  After his title loss to Connor McGregor, he had some difficulty with other top competition in Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski.  In 2020, he moved down to bantamweight.  After his loss to Merab Dvalishvili in 2022, he was ready to retire and was then inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame in 2023.  But determined not to go out on a losing streak, the King of Rio came back and had a decisive unanimous decision victory over Jonathan Martinez in his last outing.  Mario Bautista is a strong contender on a 6 fight win streak with his 6th win coming by unanimous decision over Ricky Simon.  Classified as a freestyle fighter, Bautista holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu.  He trains at the MMA Lab with fighters like Sean O’Malley and Mackenzie Dern.  6 of his 14 wins have come by way of submission, and 3 by KO/TKO.  He has received 3 performance bonuses.

Both fighters have very similar significant striking accuracy but Aldo has a slight edge in defense.  Aldo’s takedown accuracy is also slightly higher, but he holds a superior takedown defense of 92%.  Both fighters are incredibly well rounded and can hold their own wherever the fight goes.  Bautista only has one loss by TKO and by submission, meaning he is difficult to put away.  Aldo has 4 KO/TKO losses and 1 submission loss.  I believe this fight will be fairly evenly matched and fast-paced; however, given Aldo’s wealth of experience and his impressive outing against Martinez, I think he will hold the edge and win via decision.

Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Peña (Pennington by decision)

The co-main event will feature women’s bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington (16-8) against former champ Julianna Peña (10-5).  Pennington beat Mayra Bueno Silva by decision in her last outing for the vacant title.  A veteran of the UFC, she was part of TUF 18 for Team Tate.  She began training in mixed martial arts to rehab after breaking her back snowboarding.  Many of her fights have come by way of decision, but she does have 1 TKO win and 4 submission wins.  She is presently on a 6 fight win streak.  Peña was also on season 18 of TUF and was the winner for Team Tate.  She made waves with one of the most shocking upsets in UFC history with her submission win over Amanda Nunes to capture the title; however, she lost by unanimous decision in the rematch.  Peña comes from a jiu jitsu base and has 6 submission wins on her record including her win over Nunes.

Pennington historically has cleaner striking and does hold a slight edge in accuracy over Peña.  Her defense is also decent at 61%.  Peña’s strength comes from her grappling where she has a 55% takedown accuracy and heavy top pressure.  Both fighters are living in the United States, but Pennington already trains at elevation living in Colorado, whereas Peña lives in Chicago.  Since the fight is taking place in Salt Lake City, I believe the cardio and conditioning of Pennington will play a key role here.  She also has a takedown defense of 61% which could make a difference in staying on the feet and out of the way of submission danger from Peña.  Both women are known to make a fight ugly and aren’t afraid to engage, but given that Pennington’s striking is superior and she still has a solid ground game if she does end up getting taken down, I see this fight ending in a decision in her favor.

Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree (Pereira by KO/TKO R3)

The UFC 307 main event is a light heavyweight title defense for the incumbent Alex Pereira (11-2) against Khalil Rountree (14-5).  Pereira’s meteoric rise began when he signed with the UFC only having had 4 professional fights in 2021 and with a back story of his numerous fights with Israel Adesanya in kickboxing.  He remained active in kickboxing for quite some time during his early MMA career and was simultaneously Glory Kickboxing’s middleweight and light heavyweight champion, the first fighter in the promotion to hold concurrent titles in two weight classes.  His deadly left hook has led to multiple electrifying finishes.  He has 9 wins by KO/TKO on his record, with his last coming in his most recent fight over Jiri Prochazka.  He made history in the UFC as well when he obtained the middleweight title and then moved up to claim the light heavyweight title, the 9th fighter in UFC history to have obtained a title in two weight classes.  Rountree is a striker in his own right with 10 wins by KO/TKO on his record.  His last win was a TKO over Anthony Smith.  His next fight was supposed to take place at UFC 303 against Jamahal Hill, but Rountree was suspended for two months following the accidental ingestion of a banned DHEA metabolite which he self-reported to the UFC. He started his stint in the UFC when he fought on season 23 of TUF.  He started to focus more heavily on muay thai a few fights later after his loss to Johnny Walker and went to Phucket, Thailand to train.  He is on a surging 5 fight win streak, 4 of which coming by KO/TKO.

Both men are well liked fighters by the fans.  Both have come from difficult backgrounds and improved themselves to become the fighters and people that they are today.  Many believe that Pereira will steamroll Rountree like he does with many of his opponents and achieve a quick KO.  There is a difference in significant striking accuracy, with Pereira holding the advantage at 64% accuracy and Rountree with 39%.  Rountree also has 2 KO losses on his record, so it is possible for him to be finished.  Pereira has faced quite a few power punchers and striking specialists and has not historically faced much adversity there except against Adesanya in their second meeting in the UFC.  We also have not seen much ground game from either fighter, but Pereira has notably been training with the BJJ specialist Glover Texiera.  Like in the heavyweight bout between Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane, Ngannou utilized wrestling that we had previously rarely seen him use as a power puncher.  It will be interesting to see if Pereira tries to utilize any of this as part of his strategy to neutralize some of Rountree’s striking or to add to threats that Rountree needs to remain aware of.  Rountree has said in his interviews leading up to the fight that he does not plan to change who he is as a fighter and plans to keep things on the feet, but he has trained dutifully for any competition on the ground.  All things considered, I do think that Pereira is a special, one of a kind fighter, and I predict a third round KO/TKO over Rountree.

Please note, all predictions are made from the perspective of a fan and avid watcher of the sport and not as a professional sports analyst or commentator.

All UFC fighter backgrounds and statistics were pulled from the UFC website under fighter profiles/statistics pages and tapology.com